Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 2.226214 2.587116 2.986579 3.461347 4.010124 4.624437 5.364288
2026-02-01 1.520451 1.964063 2.507428 3.221283 4.134025 5.261751 6.761180
2026-02-08 1.135364 1.599641 2.217508 3.098502 4.321417 5.958347 8.316367
2026-02-15 0.909644 1.378985 2.048765 3.071799 4.593080 6.770272 10.123271
2026-02-22 0.785307 1.268448 2.000832 3.187948 5.061048 7.900330 12.530972
2026-03-01 0.660466 1.129320 1.879573 3.162079 5.295759 8.700063 14.542955
2026-03-08 0.558314 1.005626 1.757631 3.106947 5.462529 9.399749 16.477299
2026-03-15 0.486321 0.918979 1.680165 3.108184 5.713835 10.258589 18.781683
2026-03-22 0.461868 0.911990 1.737542 3.350731 6.415498 11.972742 22.804516
2026-03-29 0.417581 0.859890 1.703951 3.418615 6.803708 13.172517 26.049120
2026-04-05 0.378279 0.810636 1.667354 3.472975 7.169574 14.371263 29.444057
2026-04-12 0.338123 0.752846 1.604822 3.464889 7.407698 15.349281 32.528463
2026-04-19 0.299256 0.693241 1.533406 3.435771 7.615602 16.328771 35.828946
2026-04-26 0.251264 0.605738 1.390549 3.233806 7.432169 16.490174 37.463602
2026-05-03 0.217385 0.544580 1.295619 3.122712 7.430535 17.036227 40.014573
2026-05-10 0.194284 0.504929 1.243017 3.099970 7.624909 18.036740 43.728486
2026-05-17 0.182643 0.491487 1.249647 3.218659 8.168295 19.899755 49.706645
2026-05-24 0.164240 0.457451 1.200845 3.193054 8.357144 20.959497 53.914613
2026-05-31 0.146632 0.422387 1.143900 3.137564 8.462336 21.831283 57.783923
2026-06-07 0.133758 0.398006 1.110703 3.138873 8.713792 23.097824 62.833792
2026-06-14 0.132352 0.405874 1.164658 3.383796 9.648349 26.225116 73.171364
2026-06-21 0.123855 0.391550 1.155556 3.452346 10.112354 28.188812 80.677554
2026-06-28 0.115625 0.376583 1.142346 3.507235 10.546724 30.132532 88.406855